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Monday, March 28, 2011

nuclears are safe, but with stochastic effects


After the news about the nuclear accident at Fukushima people, especially those close to a nuclear plant, make themselves several questions:

Are all the reactors protected by a safe containment? Are they bombproof? Could the radiation leak from the containment? Could a wrong decision initiate the meltdown (caused by mismanagement or a terrorist)? Could the cooling backup systems fail? Could the used fuel ponds lose the water and contaminate? What does happen with all the nuclear waste? For how long is it radioactive?, etc, etc.

Safety is a question of statistics. The plants are designed calculating the possibility of any event and its consequences. For example, if historic data shows that a big earthquake is possible, the plant building could be designed to stand it. However cost effectiveness has also to be considered, meaning that if an event has a very low probability, we could save costs by not designing the pant for any such event. On the other side of the equation we have human lives but this cannot be helped.  

But we’d better take a look to the opinion of the experts, who have analyzed the most serious accident so far, Chernobyl

The UNSCEAR was established by the General Assembly of United Nations.




(Only one women again; it's nuclear physics).
In 1988, two years after the accident, they issued the first report, followed by others in 2000 and 2001. From 2003 to 2005 some of the Committee's experts participated in the work of the Chernobyl Forum:



all of them members of untouchable reputation!
Their conclusions:
Not too bad, and now it's safe!



Grenpeace always overreacting (200.000!)


Not true victims!



Chernobyl was good for animals. We're all green!


What can you expect from unsophisticated people? 




How they dare to talk about injustice?


The Forum also made several recommendations:

Cost-effectiveness, more industry and avoid perverse people!

Do not exaggerate; private is a must and why not a thematic park: brilliant!

In 2008 UNSCEAR issued another report: 



defining the main terms of the consequences of the accident:




Hopefully they will get comfort when they learn that they are just an stochastic effect:

 http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/features/chernobyl-deaths-180406/




Probably they were drunk:







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